After 18 weeks, how right (wrong) were betting markets?

The 2023 NFL regular season has come to a close - and like every season - there were plenty of upside and downside surprises.

As we head into the 2024 NFL playoffs, the pool of legitimate Super Bowl contenders seems as deep as it's ever been in the current Mahomes-era.

Let's remind ourselves what betting market expectations looked like in late August - when everyone surely still oozed confidence in their predictions (2024 playoff teams are highlighted in blue).

Some noteworthy takeaways:

• 7 out of the top 10 teams (and 10 out of the top 16 teams) met bettors' high expectations and made the playoffs.

  
  

• So while the NFL is volatile (and frustratingly random many times) - for the most part - the teams expected to be the good were indeed good

  
  

• The 3 teams in the top 10 that didn't make the playoffs all suffered season-ending injuries to top-tier QBs (though that's hardly the culprit for the LA Chargers' embarrassing season)

  
  

• 3 out of the bottom 7 teams surprised bettors and made the playoffs, including the Houston Texans, who were tied with the Arizona Cardinals for the lowest odds to win the Super Bowl at 180/1 or less than 1%

Buy the dip on Chiefs and Eagles?

The Kansas CIty Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles - last year's Super Bowl matchup and the two top teams coming into 2023 - closed the regular season season in disarray after nightmarish Decembers and are the only 2024 playoff teams whose Super Bowl odds are priced at their season-lows.

The Chiefs' Super Bowl odds began at +600 and peaked at +420 in late November, with many bettors ignoring any potential warning signs and instead defaulting to the view that Patrick Mahomes is a powerful enough force to compensate for any ostensible short-term lingering weaknesses.

But after 3 months of offensive ineptitude, even the most ardent Mahomes stans began to lose confidence. Chiefs' prices have been in freefall the last 4 weeks - down 52% from their late November high - bottoming at +1000 last week.

They enter the playoffs at +900 after starting the season at +600.

Meanwhile, the Eagles' Super Bowl odds began at +800 and peaked at +440 in early December, but likewise have collapsed over 60% since then as the defense continues to get ripped to shreds by even the worst offenses. Jalen Hurts has also been pedestrian and hasn't delivered any meaningful boosts of confidence.

They closed the regular season at +1300 - giving them approximately a 7% chance of winning it all, down 11% from preseason expectations.

Biggest surprises: Flacco-led Browns, Texans, Bucs, and Rams

The Cleveland Browns entered the year with lofty expectations and many doubters eager to dance on the franchise's grave given their befuddling romance with an unrepentant sexual predator.

Watson started the season and earned some decent wins, but doing so in mostly unconvincingly fashion.

Odds were mostly range bound thru mid-year, as P.J. Walker and DTR filled in somewhat admirably (including an upset win over the vaunted 49ers) for a (at the time) temporarily banged up Watson.

But prices collapsed after a midweek surprise announcement that Watson suffered a season-ending injury, falling 74% from peak to trough.

Then 38 year-old "sleepy" Joe Flacco arrived.

After what appeared to be an initial head-fake 'Flacco bounce', the rally gained legs and turned into a real face-ripper - surging 190% off the early December lows.

The Browns closed the regular season at +3400 (2.9%) - but as playoff matchups crystalized, bettors quickly bid the Browns up to +3000. This is the same price the Browns came into the season with, which of course priced-in a fully healthy Deshaun Watson.

The Houston Texans are certainly the surprise darlings of 2023. They came in with a rookie head coach, rookie quarterback, and zero expectations - hiding in the shadows of the much-adored Jacksonville Jaguars.

Prices opened at 175/1 and bottomed at 700/1 after a quick 0-2 start. But their surprise beatdown of the heavily-favored Jaguars in Week 3 was pure signal and was the spark of the coming season-long rally.

Prices topped in mid-November when Stroud and fellow rookie Tank Dell and others began getting banged up, souring bettor sentiment.

But Stroud and co. closed the season strong, with prices near their highs at 44/1 (2.2% chance).

Bettors came into the season mixed on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, mostly due to the divisiveness of Baker Mayfield and his erratic performance.

They opened the season at 75/1 (1.3%) and hovered in that range thru early October, when prices started to deteriorate. The Bucs lost 7 of 9 games midseason and prices bottom at 230/1 in early December after a 78% selloff.

They ended the season winning 5 of 6 games, and prices closed near their season high 65/1 (1.5%).

The Los Angeles Rams came into the season in almost full "rebuild" mode.

They opened the season with the 26th worst odds at 65/1. Midseason turmoil and uncertainty around Matthew Stafford's health depressed prices, causing odds to fall 80% from the season opener to 260/1. The bottom was short-lived however, and proceeded to rocket to new highs over the next 8 weeks.

They head into the playoffs with prices at their highs of the season at 50/1 (2%).

Bills' breathtaking surge off early December lows

After a brutal 37-34 OT loss to the Eagles on November 26th, the Buffalo Bills sat at 6-6, with Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins on deck.

The Bills limped into their late season bye week and their Super Bowl futures prices sunk to as low as +4100 on December 4th (implying a 2.4% chance).

Of course, as we know, Josh Allen and the Bills then rattled off 5 straight victories - winning the AFC East division title and locking in the #2 seed.

Current price is +650 (13.3%). Whatta rally.

Bettors expecting a Ravens/49ers rematch in Super Bowl 58

The Baltimore Ravens gutted Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, winning 33-19. However, our Drive Quality model scored the game much closer than the final score implies. Consistent with this observation, futures markets continue to treat the 49ers as the best team in the league, but indeed closely followed by the Ravens.

Neither team experienced too much volatility in expectations over the 2023 season. The 49ers hit a October speedbump and lost 3 straight games - but bettors didn't reactly too harshly - as prices never drifted lower than +600.

Best value bet left: the Lions?

There was a lot of excitement surrounding the Lions to start the season, opening at 21/1 (4.5%).

Some early season bumps caused prices to sell off to 29/1, bottoming in late September, before then rebounding and hitting a season high of 14/1 on Thanksgiving.

Lack of consistency and games that reminded bettors of Jared Goff's persistent weaknesses caused prices to moderate and drift lower into late season - closing at 23/1.

This is BELOW the season opener.

Markets have mostly caught up to accurately pricing the true best teams in the league by now - but I think the Lions prices might still be a bit short.

Super Bowl 58 odds for all playoff teams