This season, I'll be sharing weekly results of a custom-built quantitative framework for evaluating NFL offensive & defensive playcaller performance, along with some brief commentary and analysis.

NFL Week 8 rankings

Let's take a look at playcaller rankings (including biggest risers and fallers) through Week 7, in anticipation of Week 8.

Offense

Eight of the top ten play callers are in the NFC. While the conference lacks top tier quarterback talent, the play callers are making it work.

Defense

What a difference a year makes for Vance Joseph. He finished 28th in the play caller rankings last year, but currently ranks 7th and leads the 2nd most efficient defense. Jesse Minter, Dennard Wilson, and Jeff Hafley continue to impress in their first year as play callers.

Biggest Risers

Sean McVay has come out swinging after the bye week. Following the win against the Raiders, McVay jumped 14 spots, and his stock will continue to rise after the Rams' victory over the Vikings this past Thursday. When McVay has Stafford, Kupp, Puka, and Kyren healthy, this offense is borderline unstoppable.

Kellen Moore also climbed 14 spots this week. The Eagles are effective at running the ball and creating 1-on-1 opportunities for their playmakers. However, they’ve struggled to start fast—they are the only team to score 0 points in the first quarter. That could change this week against a poor Bengals defense.

Teryl Austin saw the biggest rise on the defensive side, jumping 17 spots after an impressive game plan against the Jets on Sunday Night Football. The defense now ranks 5th in EPA per play and 13th in success rate. Can they continue to build on their last two wins, where they allowed an average of just 14 points per game against the Raiders and Jets? They’ll face the Giants this week on Monday Night Football.

Biggest Fallers

Shane Waldron, despite not calling a single play in Week 7 due to the Bears' bye week, dropped 15 spots. The primary reason for this decline is that offensive efficiency across the league has improved as the season has progressed. If the Bears' offense can hit the ground running against the Commanders, Cardinals, and Patriots over the next three weeks, Waldron’s stock should rise again to around average.

Vic Fangio also fell 11 spots this week. His top-10 ranking in recent weeks was somewhat questionable, but a drop to average feels more appropriate for a defensive coordinator still finding his footing in his first year calling plays for the Eagles defense. While the defensive line has been effective at pressuring quarterbacks, the secondary continues to struggle with communication issues and poor tackling.

The Old Guard

To qualify for this section, a head coach must have held their role in the 2000s and still be in that position today. The idea behind this segment is that the NFL is a cyclical league, and many of the two-high shells offenses face today were also prevalent in the 2000s. Has this prior experience helped or hindered their team’s success?

Andy Reid [Overall: 9th | OFF: 12th | DEF: 15th]

The Kansas City Chiefs, led by Andy Reid, are the last remaining undefeated team. Looking at the rest of their schedule, it’s hard to predict more than a couple of losses. They travel to Las Vegas (Week 8), Buffalo (Week 11), Carolina (Week 12), Cleveland (Week 15), Pittsburgh (Week 17), and Denver (Week 18), while hosting Tampa Bay (Week 9), Denver (Week 10), Las Vegas (Week 13), Los Angeles (Week 14), and Houston (Week 16). The Bills, Texans, and divisional matchups are the only games where the Chiefs could potentially stumble. Locking up the #1 seed with the tiebreaker over the Ravens could be a reality before Week 18.

Every week seems like a struggle for this team, yet they rank 9th in EPA per play on offense and 8th on defense. Have we become so accustomed to this team’s success under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes that these otherwise solid performances seem lackluster? The team has won back-to-back championships and always seems to find another gear in the postseason. Will this year be any different?

Mike Tomlin [Overall : 10th | OFF: 17th | DEF: 6th]

Mike Tomlin is the only head coach on this list with a defensive background. "The standard is the standard," as Tomlin has famously said, and with a 5-2 start to the season, his streak of never having a losing season as a head coach seems likely to continue. However, the biggest issue for the Steelers remains finding a franchise quarterback. Wilson isn’t a long-term solution, and the team may not be fully committed to extending Fields in the offseason.

What sets Tomlin apart from other premier coaches is that he doesn’t call plays. Only one other coach in this segment, John Harbaugh, does the same, and they both coach in the same division. Interestingly, five out of the eight head coaches hired in the most recent cycle also don’t call plays: Antonio Pierce, Jerod Mayo, Raheem Morris, Jim Harbaugh, and Dan Quinn. This could signal a growing trend, where head coaches are freed up to oversee the entire team and focus more on in-game strategies, without being weighed down by the task of calling plays.

Sean Payton [Overall: 11th | OFF: 18th | DEF: 7th]

When Sean Payton took over in Denver after some time away from football, he had his work cut out for him. A year earlier, the Broncos had mortgaged their future to trade for Russell Wilson. After Payton’s first season, the team finished 8-9 and decided to part ways with Wilson, taking on an over $80 million cap hit this year. Bo Nix, their first-round draft pick, has been the starter since day one, and the team is currently 4-3 with a home matchup against the Panthers on Sunday.

While the offense has been inconsistent with their rookie quarterback, who struggles with downfield accuracy, they’ve managed to avoid costly mistakes. The defense, which allowed 70 points to the Dolphins last year, has been much improved and is pulling its weight this season. The team is playing sound complementary football, starting in the trenches. Payton has made it a priority to invest in both the offensive and defensive lines, which both rank in the top 10 in win rates for run and pass, according to ESPN.

In Payton’s first year, the Broncos signed Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey on the offensive line and extended Quinn Meinerz this past offseason. On the defensive side, they reinforced the line with Zach Allen (free agency), John Franklin-Myers (trade), and Jonah Ellis (draft), while developing talents like Jonathan Cooper and Baron Browning.

John Harbaugh [Overall: 14th | OFF: 1st | DEF: 29th]

Harbaugh always seems to be one step ahead of the competition. From drafting Lamar Jackson as Joe Flacco’s successor to transitioning from Greg Roman’s run-heavy offense to Todd Monken’s aerial attack, he's constantly adapting. While the defense has had a slow start this season, much of that can be attributed to losing three key coaches to external promotions. Before Zach Orr, who is well-respected in Baltimore, the Ravens have had great defensive minds like Rex Ryan, Chuck Pagano, and more recently Mike Macdonald.

Despite coming from a special teams background, Harbaugh consistently finds ways to succeed. He’s adapted as the NFL has evolved and continues to build a roster capable of contending year after year. The only obstacle? Getting past his former employer, Andy Reid. Will the Ravens finally find a way to beat the Chiefs come January?

Mike McCarthy [Overall: 27th | OFF: 14th | DEF: 31st]

The coaching in Dallas has been abysmal to start the season. Mike McCarthy is the only head coach from the old guard ranked below average. The defense continues to struggle against offenses that effectively utilize 12 and 21 personnel. The Saints, Ravens, and Lions have averaged 216 rushing yards per game against this defense, and that likely won’t change this week in San Francisco.

Despite the injuries to the 49ers’ offense, the combination of Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo is expected to have a field day against a defense still missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Will Mike Zimmer have a solution to stop these rushing attacks coming out of the bye week?

Mike McCarthy had a slow start last season but eventually implemented some of the league’s most effective play designs, helping Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb finish the year strong. Can McCarthy replicate that success to save his job, or will the team fall short once again?

Matchup of the Week

The only matchup in Week 8 that features two play-calling staffs ranked in the top 10 is the Chargers vs. Saints game in Los Angeles. Dennis Allen’s defense has been struggling recently, which could help Greg Roman’s offense get back on track. The more intriguing matchup, however, will be between Klint Kubiak and Jesse Minter—two first-year play callers who have shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season. With all the injuries on the Saints' offense, the question remains: can they keep it competitive against the Chargers? The market doesn’t seem to think so, as the market favors the home team by 7 points.

For more insight into how the playcaller rankings are calculated, check out the complete breakdown of the methodology.

Thanks for reading. See you next week.