This season, I'll be sharing weekly results of a custom-built quantitative framework for evaluating NFL offensive & defensive playcaller performance, along with some brief commentary and analysis.

NFL Week 7 rankings

Let's take a look at playcaller rankings (including biggest risers and fallers) through Week 6, in anticipation of Week 7.

This week, I'll provide a deeper dive analysis of the NFC North, which could be described as the best playcaller division in football, with each team boasting positive playcaller ratings on both sides of the ball.

The NFC slugfest between the Vikings and Lions is priced at essentially a pick 'em game according to betting markets and matches up an elite offensive vs defensive playcaller. Giddy up.

Meanwhile, the international game features two of the worst rated coaching staffs: Patriots and Jaguars.

Offense

The Ravens have faced four of the top five offensive play callers in consecutive weeks: Joe Brady (BUF), Zac Taylor (CIN), Kliff Kingsbury (WAS), and now Liam Coen (TB).

Can Sean McVay and Mike McDaniel bounce back after the bye week, or will their struggles continue?

Defense

Zach Orr ranks below the other three coaches hired externally from the Ravens' staff last year: Dennard Wilson, Mike Macdonald, and Anthony Weaver.

Will Brian Flores put Goff in a blender? Can Aaron Glenn rally the troops after Hutchinson's season-ending injury?

Minnesota Vikings

Overall: 1st | OFF: 6th | DEF: 1st

Last year, the Vikings saw their starting QB and star WR play fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps, yet still managed a 7-10 record. Heading into 2024 with their first-round draft pick, JJ McCarthy, on IR, they were projected to finish last in a crowded division.

However, Kevin O’Connell has turned Sam Darnold into a competent NFL quarterback, while Brian Flores is leading one of the league's most fearsome defensive units.

Despite the offensive unit ranking 14th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and 15th in Earned Drive Points (EDP), O’Connell’s play-calling ranks 6th, considering the journeyman QB and low expectations.

On defense, after the departure of Danielle Hunter in free agency, Flores has replaced that production with Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel off the edge.

Their other first-round pick, Dallas Turner, has played fewer than 25% of the snaps so far, but if he hits his stride as the season progresses, the Vikings could have a fearsome edge rotation down the stretch. With the defense already ranking first in EPA per play and 4th in EDP per drive allowed, what Flores has accomplished is nothing short of impressive, making him the top-ranked defensive play-caller right now.

Detroit Lions

Overall: 2nd | OFF: 9th | DEF: 2nd

Ben Johnson’s decision to return to Detroit this offseason was a surprising yet welcome relief for Lions fans hoping for another playoff run—and perhaps even a Super Bowl appearance. Though the offense had a slow start to the season, they've now posted back-to-back 40+ point performances and currently rank 1st in EDP, earning 2.8 points per drive. Johnson currently ranks 9th among offensive play-callers, but if the Lions continue to dominate their opponents, his stock will continue to rise.

On the defensive side, Aidan Hutchinson looked unstoppable until he broke his leg in Dallas this past week. Aaron Glenn was leading a top-10 unit in efficiency, but now the question is whether they can remain competitive after losing the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year. The Lions could be in the market for an edge rusher, with Haason Reddick and others potentially on their radar in the coming weeks.

Green Bay Packers

Overall: 5th | OFF: 12th | DEF: 6th

My pick for Coach of the Year, Matt LaFleur, has not disappointed to start the season. LaFleur ranks 12th in the playcaller rankings and has shown he can win no matter who’s at quarterback. The team went 2-0 with their backup, Malik Willis, and is starting to find its footing with Jordan Love back at the helm after what initially seemed like a season-ending knee injury.

LaFleur’s most important offseason decision came when the team moved on from Joe Barry and hired Jeff Hafley from Boston College. Hafley has helped turn the defense around, with the Packers placing an emphasis on their secondary by adding Xavier McKinney in free agency and drafting Javon Bullard and Evan Williams. All three have been key contributors to a defense that ranks 7th in EPA per play through six weeks. Over the next three weeks, the Packers have two home games against the Texans and Lions—both solid litmus tests for this unit to see if the defense can play complementary football.

Chicago Bears

Overall: 12th | OFF: 13th | DEF: 11th

The Bears are one of the few teams in their division that give off 'pretender' vibes. Both of their losses (to the Texans and Colts) came against teams with a .500 record or better, while their wins have been against four opponents with a combined 4-18 record. That said, it doesn’t mean they aren’t a good football team—they’ve held five of their six opponents to 20 points or less and rank 3rd in EPA per play and 5th in EDP per drive allowed. Under Matt Eberflus, the defense is picking up right where it left off at the end of last season.

On offense, there were struggles early on, leading some to question Shane Waldron's approach. However, back-to-back-to-back games against the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars before the bye helped the offense get back on track. Over the last three weeks, Caleb Williams has led the league in EPA per play. For reference, the Bears' offense is 20th in EPA per play and 19th in EDP, earning 1.9 points per drive for the season.

Coming off the bye, they should continue to improve with upcoming games against the Commanders, Cardinals, and Patriots. The real test for this team will come in Weeks 11 through 18, when they face all six of their division rivals, with tough matchups against the 49ers and Seahawks (revenge game for Waldron) in between.

Biggest risers

The biggest risers on offense this week were Matt LaFleur, jumping 8 spots, and Bobby Slowik, climbing 7 spots.

Both benefited from playing below average defenses in the Cardinals and Patriots, respectively. They'll aim to build on those performances as the Texans visit the Packers in Green Bay this week.

On defense, Todd Bowles and Chris Shula made significant moves, each rising 10 spots.

Bowles' defense held the Saints scoreless in the first quarter and the second half, as the Buccaneers survived a 27 point second quarter onslaught, including a Rasheed Shaheed punt return for a touchdown. With a lot of offensive success in Week 6, Chris Shula managed to jump up the leaderboard simply by sitting at home.

Biggest fallers

The Cowboys are off to their worst start since 2020, back when Jason Garrett was still head coach.

This doesn’t bode well for Mike McCarthy, who is in the final year of his contract. After a lackluster offensive performance at home against the Lions, McCarthy dropped 10 spots in the rankings and could see his stock continue to fall if the team doesn’t find answers soon.

The Cowboys’ former offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, also dropped 10 spots after the Eagles pulled off a home victory against the Browns.

While the offense was efficient, it struggled to put points on the board, relying more on one-on-one matchups than on scheming players open in space. That approach works when superstars are healthy, but that hasn’t been the case for this offense to start the year. The Eagles will travel to Dallas for Kellen Moore’s second revenge game against the Cowboys in Week 10.

Joe Whitt Jr. has been inconsistent in recent weeks. After being one of the biggest risers last week, he tumbled 8 spots following a poor performance against the Ravens, making him this week’s biggest faller.

Whitt has a chance to redeem himself against the Panthers, where two defensive starters, Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn, will have revenge games against their former team.

Another big faller is Ryan Nielsen, who dropped 7 spots. Nielsen will face a struggling Patriots offense this week.

Can he right the ship as the Jaguars wrap up their London trip, or will his defense continue to struggle against Drake Maye and company?

What I'm watching in Week 7

The #1 and #2 ranked playcalling staffs face off in Minnesota as the Lions travel to play the Vikings.

Both Jared Goff and Sam Darnold excel against man coverage looks (Cover 0, Cover 1, and 2 Man).

Brian Flores is one of the best at utilizing Cover 0, but his defense is mediocre in other man coverage schemes. Cover 3 could be the weakness to exploit against Jared Goff, as Flores' defense ranks in the 87th percentile in EPA in Cover 3, while Goff ranks in the 21st percentile against it.

Detroit's defense excels in 2 Man coverage, but that’s also when Darnold is at his best. Darnold is more vulnerable to Cover 3, 4, and 6, but the Lions haven’t been efficient in those coverages through six weeks. With Hutchinson's injury impacting the Lions' pass rush, the defensive advantage in the passing game may lean toward the Vikings.

Kevin O’Connell has been one of the best at scripting plays (approximately first 15 plays of the game) over the past couple of seasons and currently ranks 2nd in scripted EDP per drive, earning over a field goal, 3.1 points, on scripted drives —will he put the Vikings in a position to grab an early lead against their division rival? Can Ben Johnson find ways to attack Brian Flores’ revamped defense? Will Goff be as efficient against the blitz as he was last year against Minnesota?

A lot of questions will be answered this Sunday.

For more insight into how the playcaller rankings are calculated, check out the complete breakdown of the methodology.

Thanks for reading. See you next week.