Why Drive Quality?

The final result of a game is oftentimes a permanent inaccurate memorialization of a team’s performance (depending on the distribution, volume, severity, and additive/punitive nature of 'fluky' or uncharacteristic plays).

Justified or not, official final scores reign supreme – confirming handicapping biases, cashing or shredding tickets, and serving as a benchmark reference point to support future predictions by bettors, analysts, and fans (all of whom become, over time, increasingly desensitized to the 'false' final scores' erroneous underpinnings).

This persistent inefficiency can create potential distortions in the transmission mechanism of market prices for teams and matchups and therefore a possible consistent source of alpha generation.

Drive Quality is an NFL model focused on systematically capturing the efficacy, durability, and reproducibility of drive-level performance, independent of actual scoring outcomes. This can yield more accurate explanations of how well a team moved the ball in the past, and in turn, how likely they are to move the ball and score points in the future.

But perhaps its most versatile use as an efficiency metric (and likely its most provocative) relates to its ability to generate post hoc representations of final scores. Of course, this is not a novel idea but the hypothesis is that there is considerable edge to be had from this single attack vector alone. 

NFL week 4 takeaways

• Vikings have been a top 3 team in composite EDP all season and earned another straight up win as an underdog

  
  

• Chiefs eeked out a realized win vs. Chargers, but more easily earned the win in EDP terms 19-10

  
  

• Saints lose but earned a 20-10 win and remain a top 5 team in composite EDP

  
  

• Steelers lose but earned a 23-19 win at the Colts; generating 5 explosive plays (now 9th in xDR) and scoring 0 points on a beautiful 9 play, 5 minute, 91 yard drive, earnings 4.1 points

  
  

• Discounting garbage time success, Packers were still competitive vs. Vikings, earning 24 points

Bills @ Ravens

The Ravens beat up on the Bills and our model substantiates this observation, albeit showing a closer game than the final suggests.

The Bills earned 6 points on two drives with 3 combined explosive plays but resulted in zero realized points.

Commanders @ Cardinals

Commies blew out the Cardinals, but according to Drive Quality the Cards put in a better showing than many believe by casually perusing final scores.

Commies TD aftera 47 yard PI call was discounted by the model, as was their final TD drive (discounted due to garbage time). Cards also scored zero points on drives they earned 6.1, 1.3, and 2.3 points.

Saints @ Falcons

Saints earned the win and remain a top 5 team in composite earned drive points (EDP).

The Falcons' "opening drive TD" was after a muffed Saints punt, and rightfully earned the Falcons essentially zero points. The rest of the game, the Falcons did put together a single offensive drive that earned more than 2.5 points.

Browns @ Raiders

Browns came into week 4 power rated as the 31st team in composite earned drive points (EDP)…and they showed why in a straight-up loss as a bettor-beloved road favorite vs the weary and banged-up Raiders.

No consolation prize here; Browns earned the loss.

After a 15-play 9 minute, 70 yard opening drive TD that earned them 5.7 points, the Browns didn't put together another drive all game that earned them even 1 point until the final drive. They also had no explosive plays until the final drive.

Raiders weren't much better, but mustered drives that earned them 3.8, 2.1, 1.3, and 4.3 points. Raiders also only had one explosive play in the game.

Cowboys @ Giants

Cowboys and Giants both came into their week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup power rated as bottom 25 teams. Nothing in this game is going to disabuse the model of that notion, with Cowboys/Giants earning a tie.

Vikings @ Packers

Drive Quality is programmed to discount garbage time success, but even still, this game was relatively evenly matched.

Vikings have been a top 3 team in EDP all season, and they once again convincingly demonstrated why with the straight up and earned win as +2.5 underdogs.

The Packers are the 3rd in xDR (explosive drive rate), generating a 20-yard pass or run on 44% of drives (behind only the Commies and 49ers). Packers remain bettable.

That's all for this week. If you'd like to see more scores, DM me on X or email me.