A quantitative framework for valuing the impact of offensive & defensive playcallers
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NFL coaches that design offensive & defensive schemes play an important role in influencing game outcomes. But how do you place a value on someone who isn’t on the field? This season, I'll be sharing weekly results of a custom-built quantitative framework for evaluating NFL offensive & defensive playcaller performance, along with some brief commentary and analysis.
Kliff Kingsbury crushing Shane Waldron:
Despite both working with rookie quarterbacks on their second NFL teams in playcalling roles, Kingsbury ranks in the top half of offensive playcaller rankings, while Waldron sits at 32nd.
Waldron’s offense has left a lot of yards on the field, partly due to Caleb Williams' struggles and issues with the interior of the offensive line.
On the other hand, the Commanders have their own offensive deficiencies, yet Kingsbury has managed to build a system around Jayden Daniels' skill set. Adapting to a quarterback and playmakers, rather than simply installing your own offense, can sometimes yield better results.
Baker Mayfield ranked 19th in EPA per play during his two years under Kevin Stefanski. Since 2023, in Tampa Bay, he has improved to 8th in EPA per play.
Meanwhile, DeShaun Watson hasn’t looked nearly as good as he did in Houston, with Cleveland's offense lacking "easy buttons" like play action, RPOs, screens, and motions. Since Stefanski took over in 2020, Cleveland's offensive efficiency (EPA) ranks 21st in the NFL. At what point should Stefanski be held accountable for the Browns' offensive struggles?
Rookie defensive playcallers shine:
Jesse Minter and Jeff Hafley weren’t on NFL coaching staffs last year, both hired from the college ranks. Minter followed Harbaugh from Michigan to Los Angeles, while LaFleur convinced Hafley to leave Boston College and join Green Bay.
They rank first and second respectively heading into week four.
Defensive minded head coaches DeMeco Ryans, Dennis Allen, Matt Eberflus, and Todd Bowles are the only ones in the top 10 for defensive play callers.
Mike Macdonald, another defensive head coach, is not far behind at 15th. Currently, the other eight defensive-minded head coaches do not call plays; Mike Tomlin, Sean McDermott, Antonio Pierce, Jonathan Gannon, Dan Quinn, Jerod Mayo, Raheem Morris, and Robert Saleh. Of those eight, four were hired this past offseason.