NFL coaches that design offensive & defensive schemes play an important role in influencing game outcomes. But how do you place a value on someone who isn’t on the field? This season, I'll be sharing weekly results of a custom-built quantitative framework for evaluating NFL offensive & defensive playcaller performance, along with some brief commentary and analysis.

NFL Week 5 rankings

Offense

Klint Kubiak regains the top spot, while Kliff Kingsbury is leading the NFL's most efficient offense according to several advanced metrics. The top six play callers are not head coaches, and five of the six work under non-offensive minded head coaches.

Defense

Brian Flores is back. Vance Joseph has put together great game plans against the Bucs and Jets in back-to-back weeks. Lou Anarumo is one of the most overrated defensive play callers, and Ejiro Evero's unit has been decimated by injuries.

Q1 check-in on new coaching staffs

Through 4 weeks, who has gotten off to a slow start and who has impressed?

A new NFL coaching staff rarely hits the ground running. Of the seven new coaching staffs, only two have an overall score in the top half of the league.

Atlanta Falcons

Overall: 27th | OFF: 17th | DEF: 26th

The $160M investment in Kirk Cousins hasn’t paid immediate dividends in Atlanta so far.

The offense ranks #21 in EPA per play and #15 in EDP per drive through four games, despite the draft capital and cap space allocated to that side of the ball.

Kyle Pitts has been uninspiring, Drake London is struggling to produce, and Bijan Robinson is averaging less than 100 yards per game. Is Zac Robinson underutilizing these offensive weapons, or are these players overrated based on their draft position? I would lean towards the latter, given the lack of positional awareness in the selections of Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson.

The defense started the season old and lacked talent, and currently ranks 23rd in EDP allowed at 2.3 points per drive. Raheem Morris (HC) and Jimmy Lake (DC & playcaller) haven’t been able to generate a pass rush or stop the run. If they can’t turn things around in the coming weeks, was Raheem Morris a product of Aaron Donald's success in LA?

Carolina Panthers

Overall: 31st | OFF: 29th | DEF: 32nd

Dave Canales was hired for his reputation as an excellent communicator, a tone-setter, and a supposed QB whisperer.

During his time in Seattle and Tampa Bay, Canales was part of coaching staffs that helped turn around the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. He was brought in, along with Dan Morgan, to do the same for Bryce Young.

Two weeks in, Bryce Young has been benched, and Andy Dalton now has the offense humming.

The sunk costs associated with obtaining and building around Young are massive and will take years to offset. Time will tell if Canales was the right guy for the job, but without much talent on the roster, it's hard to properly evaluate the coaching staff.

Ejiro Evero has lost Brian Burns, Frankie Luvu, and Donte Jackson this past offseason and is currently fielding only 4 out of the projected 11 starters on defense. If the Panthers plan on winning any more games this year, it’s going to have to be because of the offense.

Los Angeles Chargers

Overall: 19th | OFF: 23rd | DEF: 12th

Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL started off 2-0, but with back-to-back losses to the Steelers and Chiefs, and the Chargers now find themselves at .500 at the quarter mark of the season.

Jesse Minter finished #1 in defensive playcaller rankings in Weeks 2 and 3, falling just outside the top 10 in Week 4 at #12. He has the defensive unit playing well, but unfortunately, the offense hasn’t been able to complement their efforts.

With the departure of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler in the offseason, the front office didn’t do much to address the wide receiver room, instead bolstering the offensive line with the selection of Joe Alt.

Greg Roman’s vanilla, run-heavy offense hasn’t found its footing, leaving Justin Herbert visibly frustrated on the sideline. It doesn’t help that the Chargers are one of five teams with a health grade below 80, according to Sports Injury Central. The Chargers rank #25 in EDP, earning just 1.3 points per drive.

New England Patriots

Overall: 30th | OFF: 25th | DEF: 26th

The Patriots were considered one of the worst teams heading into the year. With Christian Barmore’s rare blood clot condition and the trade of Matt Judon to Atlanta, the defense is a shell of what it was last season.

Jerod Mayo and DeMarcus Covington have their work cut out for them, but they have Keion White and Christian Gonzalez to build around.

On offense, the offensive line—which already had several holes—continues to lose pieces, with David Andrews now on IR.

Alex Van Pelt has been extremely conservative, leaning into a run-heavy approach. The Patriots invested the third overall pick in Drake Maye, and at some point, you have to wonder when the coaching staff will start him. He could add the explosive element that is missing from this offense. The Patriots rank dead last in explosive drive rate, generating a 20+ run or pass play on just 10% of drives.

Seattle Seahawks

Overall: 18th | OFF: 20th | DEF: 16th

The Seahawks started both the 2023 and 2024 seasons at 3-1, but this year feels a little different. With a new coaching staff, the team is starting to hit its stride.

Ryan Grubb has put Geno Smith in a position to air it out. While their offensive efficiency and success rate were actually higher last year, it will take some time for this new system to reach its full potential, but short-term results look promising.The Seahawks are #6 in EDP on pass-heavy drives, and #2 in the frequency of pass-heavy drives at 67%.

The 42 points the Lions scored on the Seahawks were a lot, but Seattle was missing several key players on the defensive line. Prior to Monday Night, Mike Macdonald generated the highest pressure rate with the second-lowest blitz rate.

But even after the MNF slugfest, the Seahawks defense is #5 in explosive drive rate, allowing a 20 yard pass or run play on just 21% of drives.

Once the defense is healthy, I expect Macdonald to turn what was one of the worst defenses last year into a borderline top-10 unit by the end of the season.

Tennessee Titans

Overall: 11th | OFF: 13th | DEF: 13th

From the Titans’ 1-3 record it’s hard to believe they have a good coaching staff.

Due to a few unlucky plays each game, they’ve lost games they should’ve won or were much more competitive than the final score implied. According to Drive Quality's "earned" scores, the Titans earned a win vs the Bears, nearly did vs the Jets, and played the Packers much closer than the 30-14 blowout official score.

With a dominant win this past Monday against the reeling Dolphins, they were able to showcase the strength of their team: the defense.

Will Levis currently ranks 28th in adjusted EPA per play out of 36 qualifying QBs (per Ben Baldwin). A small boost from his initial rank of 33rd that accounts for the Titans bad offensive line and some poor turnover luck.

If Brian Callahan stays the course the luck variance should swing the other way, but will Levis be able to put it together in time?

Washington Commanders

Overall: 10th | OFF: 2nd | DEF: 29th

We saved the best for last.

Dan Quinn was the 6th-best defensive play-caller last year. He decided not to call plays in Washington. The defense lacks talent, playing to expectations under Joe Whitt Jr’s play calling. If Adam Peters and Dan Quinn can replenish that side of the ball over the next few seasons, they’ll be just fine moving forward.

On offense, a once-washed-up play-caller, Kliff Kingsbury, has designed a system around a rookie quarterback that’s been tantalizing to watch. And Kliff hasn't taken his foot off the gas. Washington is #1 in EDP per drive in both the first half and 2nd half of games.

We have yet to see Drake Maye play a snap, but Jayden Daniels is looking the part in Washington’s offense—taking what the defense gives him and consistently moving the chains. This may be a dark horse team to win the NFC East, with the Eagles and Cowboys dealing with injuries to their stars.

Significant factors within the PCA framework

The Y-Aware Approach, using the PCA framework, scales variables based on their relationship with points scored or allowed. On offense, Points Over market Expectation (POE), EPA in different personnel packages, and a QB’s ELO rating are the biggest factors. From a statistical significance standpoint, draft capital, cap space, passes over expectation, and EPA from penalties show very little signal.

On defense, it's a similar story. POE and EPA are the two factors that correlate the most with points allowed by a defense. Since coverage type isn’t recorded for running plays, EPA in light and heavy boxes is used instead. Interestingly, the quarterback’s impact isn’t as significant as one might assume, despite EPA against the pass being one of the more statistically significant factors.

As has been well documented, defenses have generally stifled offenses thus far this season, prioritizing the prevention of explosive plays over stopping the run.

As a result, EPA in heavy boxes has shown very little correlation with points allowed and should not be a major factor when evaluating defensive signal-callers.

Check out the complete breakdown of this methodology.

NFL Week 5: intriguing matchups to watch

The Jets (8) and Vikings (3) game in London is the only matchup this week featuring two teams in the top 10 for playcallers.

The Vikings have been on a tear to start the year. Aaron Rodgers has shown glimpses of his former greatness, but will it be enough against Brian Flores? Kevin O’Connell has put Sam Darnold in one of the best situations of his career, and he has flourished as a result. 

The Dolphins (32) and Patriots (30) matchup features two out of the three lowest ranked playcallers.

In this divisional game, will the Patriots be able to replicate their game plan against the Bengals, or will the Dolphins generate enough explosive plays to prevail with journeyman Tyler Huntley at QB?

Lastly, many of the top offensive playcallers in our rankings have also schemed up some of the most effective scripted opening drives - something you'd expect from an elite, creative playcaller. Using these playcaller rankings as a tool to crafting potential 1st drive scoring bets may be helpful.

Thanks for reading. See you next week.