This season, I'll be sharing weekly results of a custom-built quantitative framework for evaluating NFL offensive & defensive playcaller performance, along with some brief commentary and analysis.

NFL Week 6 rankings

Let's take a look at playcaller rankings (including biggest risers and fallers) through Week 5, in anticipation of Week 6.

Offense

This week features a matchup between the #1 and #3 playcallers.

Will we see a shootout in Baltimore between the Commanders and Ravens? The betting markets price the game at 51.5 points, 2nd highest total of the week to Lions/Cowboys at 52.5 points.

Is 2x COY Kevin Stefanski on the hot seat?

Defense

Brian Flores is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers.

All four NFC North defensive play callers have positive ratings. With the early success of Jeff Hafley and Jesse Minter, could we see more defensive coordinators hired from the college ranks?

Last year’s Super Bowl featured the #2 ranked play-calling staff in the 49ers against the #13 ranked play-calling staff in the Chiefs. The Chiefs prevailed, with Mahomes raising his third Lombardi trophy and winning his second consecutive title.

Through five weeks this season, the last two undefeated teams are the Chiefs and Vikings, both currently ranked in the top 4 for play-calling. Despite multiple injuries to their wide receivers, the Chiefs have continued to find ways to win. Meanwhile, the Vikings were counted out after losing their future quarterback, JJ McCarthy, to a season-ending injury in the offseason. Both teams have managed to overcome adversity, largely due to coaches who put their players in the best positions to succeed.

These teams are led by offensive-minded head coaches—Andy Reid for the Chiefs and Kevin O’Connell for the Vikings—alongside brilliant defensive coordinators in Steve Spagnuolo and Brian Flores, each with prior head coaching experience.

It may be too early to predict this year’s Super Bowl matchup, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see these two teams as the last ones standing come February. Chiefs are currently priced at +210 to win the AFC (+500 to win SB), while Vikings are +600 to win the NFC (+1200 to win SB) (odds via Fanduel).

First coach fired

Five weeks into the season, the first head coach has been fired—the fastest in-season firing since Matt Rhule in 2022.

The Jets dismissed Robert Saleh on Tuesday, escorting him out of the building. Defensive coordinator and play-caller Jeff Ulbrich, who currently ranks 5th, will step in as interim head coach. Nathaniel Hackett (27th) has been relieved of his play-calling duties, with Todd Downing now taking over.

The Rodgers trade felt like a long shot in 2023, and with his season-ending injury last year and now this rocky start, it hasn’t delivered the results Jets fans had hoped for. The Jets are only one game out of first place in the AFC East and could take the top spot with a win on Monday. Will this move spark real change, or is it just the first of many firings in New York?

Biggest risers

It's still very early in the season, and there’s considerable variance within the PCA framework, but it’s interesting to see who boosted their stock the most after Week 5.

On offense, Andy Reid jumped 21 spots to #5 this week. Last season, Reid's ranking fluctuated quite a bit, partly due to the 'Mahomes tax' with the QB ELO rating factored in. Reid also seems to use the regular season to experiment with what works and what doesn’t on offense, leaving room for inefficient performances that can hurt his stock.

On defense, Joe Whitt Jr. made an impressive leap from 29th to 16th, moving from one of the lowest rankings to average. If Dan Quinn and Joe Whitt can coax average production out of the Commanders' defense, this team could emerge as the favorite to win the division in a weaker NFC East this season.

Biggest fallers

Arthur Smith and Brian Callahan each fell 17 spots after Week 5. Smith dropped from 11th to 28th.

The Steelers’ Sunday night performance against a Cowboys defense plagued by injuries wasn’t encouraging for either the play-caller or the quarterback. Could we see Russell Wilson start over Justin Fields sooner rather than later?

Offenses seemed to hit their stride in Week 5, leaving a few play-callers who had a bye week trailing behind. If Brian Callahan can rally against a struggling Colts defense, he might regain his position as an above-average play-caller heading into Week 7.

Dennis Allen had remained in the top 10 all season until this past week, dropping 11 spots from 6th to 17th. The Saints’ performance against the Chiefs on Monday night was forgettable, but if they can’t bounce back defensively on consecutive short weeks (Sunday against the Bucs and Thursday against the Broncos), their hot 2-0 start could quickly spiral into a 2-5 slump. If Allen wants to prove he’s the right choice at head coach, he’ll need to find ways to win, starting with the defense, as rookie QB Spencer Rattler is set to make his debut with Derek Carr sidelined.

NFL Week 6: intriguing matchups to watch

Kliff Kingsbury and Todd Monken have been on a tear to start the year. Kingsbury took the top spot this week after an impressive game plan against the Browns on Sunday.

Monken and Lamar Jackson entered a shootout in Cincinnati and managed to come out on top. Over the past couple of years, we’ve seen the Ravens allow teams back into games, most recently against the Raiders in Week 2. While the Ravens are clearly the more talented roster, can Kingsbury and Jayden Daniels find ways to sustain drives and stay competitive for all four quarters?

For more insight into how the playcaller rankings are calculated, check out the complete breakdown of the methodology.

Thanks for reading. See you next week.