This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

Last week, we whiffed on our Jonathan Taylor builds - but successfully hit our Core +390 Howell/Dotson build in addition to a juicy +4000 Watson/Cooper build that we mapped out live on the Alpha Bets Whiteboard stream.

This is a relatively low conviction week. That said, at least one game sticks out as a potential sizable mispricing.

Let's get into it…

NFL Week 10 SGP construction:

Ravens are one of the few teams I have preseason futures on, suspecting the added weapons and shift in offensive scheme would improve over the course of the season. Where Ravens have surprised, is in how well their defense has performed to date - but let’s consider the context of who’ve they’ve played.

C.J. Stroud’s inaugural game, Dorian-Thompson Robinson, Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill, banged-up Joe Burrow, Josh Dobbs, Geno Smith and Jared Goff.

Yum.

The most notable of those games was at home vs the Lions - but that was a situational dead spot for the Lions. I’m not ready to give up on the general priors that this Ravens defense is closer to mid-tier than elite, as stronger competition shows up on the schedule over the latter half of the season.

These teams also already faced one another, which tends to lend itself to a more buttoned up encore - particularly for the team that may have underperformed (benefiting the Browns). Watson may have found at least a bit of confidence last week and the Browns' superb defense can be reasonably expected to course-correct, better appreciating Lamar’s shiftiness in the pocket is where they got beat in the earlier meeting. All of which is to say, I expect the Browns to find more success on both sides of the ball in this rematch.

My base high-leverage scenario is a Browns upset with an Overs angle on Watson-led game-script.

Core (+425)

• Browns ML

• Njoku O 32.5 yards

Correlated (+1400)

• Cooper O 53 yards

• Watson O 191 yards

Leverage (103/1)

• Andrews O 47 yards

• Lamar TD

Spinoff non-Browns win scenario (+1400)

• Browns O 15.5 points

• Njoku O 32.5 yards

• Cooper O 53 yards

• Watson O 191 yards

• Andrews O 47 yards

Both these team’s secondaries have struggled, and the Bucs are potentially without their two top corners.

The obvious angle is both QBs have success throwing down the field, running up the score accordingly. That said, I think both teams want to key on the run game, which likely won’t be very effective against these defensive fronts that have been tops in the league against the run, setting up for 3rd and longs, inside the 20s, and FGs. The Titans rank 29th in offensive third-down conversion rate and the Bucs rank 31st in defensive third-down conversion rate.

Core (+1000)

• Under 39.5 Points

• Hopkins O 81 rec yards

• Evans O 71 rec yards

Leverage (+2800)

• Levis O 225 pass yards

• Hopkins O 101 yards

• Evans O 101 yards

Ulta Leverage (105/1)

• Levis O 225 pass yards

• Hopkins O 101 rec yards

• Evans O 101 rec yards

• Under 39.5 points

Moonshot (105/1)

• Levis O 225 pass yards

• Hopkins O 101 rec yards

• Evans O 101 rec yards

• Under 39.5 points

Is this THE week for a Zach Charbonnet breakout? Pete Carroll has been singing his praises since the preseason, and continues to do so in recent press conferences. He has flashed when given the opportunity, and Kenneth Walked has been increasingly gimpy - potentially opening the door for a "hot hand" game from Charbonnet.

Moonshot (+6500)

• Charbonnet O 66 yards

• Walker U 15.5 carries

Moonshot P*rn (250/1)

• Charbonnet O 76 yards

• Commies +6.5

Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.