This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

Good news? We have officially reached that magical period between Thanksgiving and Christmas, where we can all hopefully catch our breath a bit and enjoy some much needed respite.

Bad news? I whiffed on not getting this note out early for the Thanksgiving games.

As those in our Discord know, I manage an "NFL Rewind" channel, where I share some notes from rewatching select notable games from the week prior. In this week's edition, I focused on the Bears/Lions and Packers/Chargers. I was impressed with Love and outlined how this Packers offense may be on the rise.

Based on these observations, I built a 20:1 core SGP targeting Love/Dobbs overs, a competitive Packers offense, and the game total over. Cha-ching.

All of which is to say: I welcome you to join our Discord (DM me for an invite). Steal some insights, share your perspective, and help us whiteboard different SGP angles/builds/variants.

That said, let’s get to week 12.

NFL Week 12 SGP construction:

Given the light post-holiday slate, I'm weaving in some non-SGP standalone angles. I'm targeting a trio of RBs facing bottom 5 QBs.

If Derrick Henry is going to have a classic showing this season, this is when it happens (with perhaps one big late breakaway run as the cherry on top). Carolina has been sneaky mediocre-to-good vs the pass (haven't allowed a single 300 yard passer), and in a low-scoring, slow-paced game, I'm betting on a lot of Henry work vs a much more vulnerable run defense. The Panthers defense is bottom 5 in allowed EDP on run-heavy drives, and opposing offenses are exploiting that weakness - having run-heavy drives vs the Panthers defense 57% of the time (that's a top 3 rate).

Jaylen Warren has gone over the century mark in back-to-back games - and now gets a new OC, who surely wants to put his best players in better positions to be successful. The Steelers offense obviously hasn't been good this year - but their run-heavy drives are earning 1.3 points-per-drive vs their pass-heavy drives earning just 1 point-per-drive. The Bengals defense is top 6 in missed tackles and are giving up an explosive play on a league worst 38% of drives - yikes.

Rhamondre Stevenson is facing a team giving up 155 yards/game on the ground over the last 3 weeks. Bill B is visibly exasperated with his QBs' performance this season, and I expect the Pats offense to lean into their known strengths and grind out a run-heavy gamescript vs an exploitable Giants run defense with mounting injuries. Bill B gets an extra week and more game-tape on a backup rookie QB, so I'll likely also be targeting other Patriots-led angles. Get creative.

RB Moonshot (120/1)

• Henry O 109 yards

• Warren O 99 yards

• Stevenson O 98 yards

This alt game-script assumes both offenses see a surprise uptick in explosive performance (Bengals currently generating an explosive play on only 20% of drives vs the Steelers on 26% of drives - both bottom 10).

Jake Browning looked capable enough coming in for injured Joe Burrow last week, particularly when targeting Jamarr Chase. A one-off spot where he looks comparable to a Will Levis-like showing with deep passes down the field, assisted by a top 5 NFL weapon, is not as improbable as the market is pricing. The Steelers defense plays man-coverage at the 4th highest rate, and we know this is where elite, speedy WRs can feast. As shown earlier, the Steelers defense is also bottom 5 in xDR (explosive drive rate), allowing a 20+ yard play on 36% of drives. I think Browning is competent enough to take advantage.

Moonshot (168/1)

• Browning O 286 pass yards

• Chase O 135 rec yards

• Warren O 99 rush yards

I'll also experiment with a few lower-threshold versions of this, including swapping Warren for someone like George Pickens (assuming my 'new-OC focuses on the run' thesis is wrong and the Steelers instead attack a more vulnerable Bengals pass defense).

Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.