This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

Last week, we were directionally on target with our Bengals/Browning/Chase stack, but were overly ambitious with our thresholds. A reminder as to why SGP strategies can be so challenging: it’s not just about capturing the individual player handicap and forecasting the right game-script, we have to optimize the right allocation recipe to properly capitalize on it ( while still not overexposing ourselves to too many bets and undue exposure to any single game thesis).

Let’s work toward that end this week.

NFL Week 13 SGP construction:

I want to attack this matchup in two ways, expecting a wider probability distribution of outcomes than is being appreciated.

Best case scenario for the Cardinals, we see a Love/Packers-style performance and the Steelers offense continues to struggle to score meaningful points. We talked about last week how the Bengals defense gives up some of the most explosive plays in the league - so a bounce in offensive performance was expected (along with the wildcard element of a new OC). But they still only mustered 16 points.

Kyler is playing his 4th game now. I don’t expect the Cardinals to have too much success running it vs a stout Steelers defensive front, but Kyler’s base passing numbers are at rock bottom Brown-level QB numbers. Kyler also has a rushing TD in each of his games thus far. So let’s build from the angle that Kyler puts the team on his back.

Gamescript 1: Cardinals find air-raid success (+950)

• Cardinals +6.5

• Kyler Murray O 226 yards

• Kyler Murray 1+ Rush TD

As expected, the Steelers had an uptick in offensive performance last week, putting up over 400 yards of offense. Najee ran wild, Pickett found his TE all over the field, and the Steelers might have turned a short-term corner on their offense. For this gamescript, a Steelers at home beat down of a floundering bottom feeder team is in play, especially on the ground. And lest we forget, Kyren Williams and Royce Freeman made mincemeat of this run defense last week.

Gamescript 2: Steelers run over Cardinals (+2200)

• Steelers alt line -12.5

• Najee Harris O 100 yards

• Najee Harris 1+ TD

• Jalen Warren O 60 yards

Both these teams are top 12 in earned drive points (EDP) during pass-heavy drives this season. I expect the Dolphins to get their explosive plays and TDs, leaving Sam Howell to play aggressive and in catchup mode. Not only that, Commanders are 2nd in the NFL in pass-heavy drives, just behind Patty Mahomes. So, at minimum, we can bank on volume for Commanders passing game, especially if they fall behind.

Add the likelihood that Miami’s safety Jevon Holland , graded 91 by PFF, is likely to miss this game, and it sets up nicely for Howell to have some downfield desperation success. On the flip side, Tyreke and Mostert take up nearly half of Miami’s scoring output - so vs this type of defense, I don’t expect that to change.

Core (+312)

• Howell O 300 pass yards

• Game total O 49.5

  
  

Leverage (+600)

• Hill O 100 rec yards

High Leverage (+4000)

• Hill 1+ TD

• Commanders +9

• Mostert 1+ TD

Building on DeepValueBettor’s take that the Broncos' market expectations have overshot their fundamentals, I’m going to lean into a game-script where the budding Texans dominate and the overhyped Broncos. Not without precedent (see the Texans vs Steelers earlier in the year).

Core (+4000)

• Stroud O 323 pass yards

• Nico Collins O 99 rec yards

• Texans -3

• Game total U 47.5 

Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.