This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

Last week we came up just short on CJ Stroud’s pass yards and our 40/1 build - but the cover, Nico Collins alt overs, and under game total (an inversely correlated balloon kicker) provided a strong directional core to build from.

As a reminder, this weekly note is designed to give out trade ideas, angles, and alt game-scripts I’m keying on, but I also encourage you to use your own judgment to scale up or down, diversify, or pivot a leg - especially given the wide range of book pricing out there (and what you, personally, may have at your disposal). There will always be an element of DYOR (Do Your Own Research) if you want to maximize your own potential, especially relative to your personal risk tolerance and bankroll. We expect to provide more tools and alternative data to help you do this next season as well. More to come.

This week, we may be in for a wide range of surprising game-scripts and results, considering there are nearly a dozen backups getting a start and weather is going to be a notable factor across multiple games for the first time this season. These are also well known variables - and could already be overly-baked into some prices. Look no further than TNF's Patriots upset of the Steelers and the total blasting past the closing number of 29.5 before halftime and several players blowing past their depressed prop prices. A weakness Throwthedamball spotted and exploited with some attractive lottery-ticket builds that nearly hit.

Let's find more.

NFL Week 14 SGP construction:

Both these teams are perceived to be trending in opposite directions, which is true on its face, but the Jets get a major bounce offensively with Zach Wilson coming back (at least for SGP purposes) after a few weeks off. Before the Bills game, Zach Wilson tossed 240, 263, and 263 yards his last three consecutive weeks. In addition, Garrett Wilson consistently had at least 7 catches and 80 yards over the same span.

So, how does the Texans' defense shake out?

They are 20th in overall EDP/drive allowed, giving up nearly 2 points-per-drive. On the passing front, they have allowed an average of 257 yards on the road per game, including letting the likes of Desmond Ridder go over 300 yards. Bryce Young also had his 2nd best yardage output on the season vs the Texans.

The weather is expected to have some “likely showers” and up to 20 mph gusts (a key threshold) in this game. The big dip in the game total confirms bettors' expectations for this likelihood. I’m seeing as low as 33 - down from 38 - as of Sunday morning, and with a team like the Texans relying heavily on explosive downfield passing without one of their best WRs for the rest of the season in Tank Dell, this spot may be right for Jets and a low score with an inverse correlation on some specific game props to get a better price. In the 3 games Zach Wilson tossed the ball well numbers-wise, the totals in those games were 23, 28 and 33, suggesting he can find moderate success at times between the 20s, before stalling out and settling for FGs.

Core (+375)

• 1H U 16.5

• Game total U 33.5

• Jets +3.5

  
  

Inverse Correlation (+2100)

• Z. Wilson O 223 pass yards

• G. Wilson O 74 rec yards

  
  

Leverage (+5000)

• Stroud O 215 pass yards

*I price fair odds of these builds at +330, +1700, and +3200, respectively.

I’m keying on Chubba Hubbard in the Panthers/Saints game, who recently said he feels the healthiest he's ever been since entering the NFL.

Remember: new HC, bad rookie QB, and a healthy weapon out of the backfield went for 25 carries, 104 yards and 2 TDs last week against ostensibly a top 10 run defense that previously only allowed one other rusher on the season go for over the century mark. His max pricing on one book is 117 yards +900 and 2 TDs +900, both a bit of a stretch so going to do some variations on this.

I also think the Panthers are live to win this game - especially if Taysom Hill ends up not playing and Derek Carr starts at QB.

Conservative (+875)

• Hubbard O 87 rush yards

• Hubbard 1 TD

• Hubbard O 17 carries

  
  

Aggressive (+8900)

• Hubbard O 117 rush yards

• Hubbard 2 TDs

• Hubbard 0 21 carries

A non-SGP, cross-game parlay stack I like this week - especially with the weather being such a factor this week - is keying on feature RBs on teams who have demonstrated a clear commitment to getting the ball.

RB Build (+585)

• Barkley O 17 carries

• Mixon O 16 carries

• McCaffrey O 86 yards

Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.