This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

Last week we cashed our +585 RB parlay build with Mixon/Barkley/CMac, while our juicy Jets/Texans "Wilson rebound"-script SGP got sunk by our under 33.5 leg, surely one of the more obnoxious "bad beats" of the year.

However, as I have preached throughout the season, DeepValueBettor used the script as general directional guidance but sprinkled in his own views. In his build, he faded the aforementioned cursed under 33.5 and the fickle Gambling Gods smiled in his favor.

This is a great real world example of my intentions for this weekly note - not for readers to necessarily tail blindly (though, of course, that is OK too), but to use some of the broad strokes outlined as starting point ideas to blend with your own analysis.

Lastly, I did some housekeeping this week to tally exactly where we stand from a pnl ("profit and loss") perspective. Our pure play SGP strategy (all builds shared in these notes) is up over 17 units season-to-date.

Not bad ;)

NFL Week 15 SGP construction:

From a game-script position, I’m aiming hard at the Lions "getting their points" stack, considering they rank top 6 in offensive EDP on the year and top 4 in xDR (explosive drive rate) while the Broncos are bottom 10 in xDR allowed on defense.

Yes, the Broncos have gotten better defensively over the latter half of the season (I mean, they really could only go up from rock bottom), but the defense still struggles against running back schemes, especially with fast backs like the electric Jahmyr Gibbs.

To say, I don’t see the Broncos slowing down this Lions offense, and so the SGP angle I want to key on is Lions getting their points and the Broncos throwing their way to keep up against a secondary that ranks bottom 10 in EDP allowed. A similar game-style we saw earlier in the year in the Seahawks/Lions matchup.

Core (+865)

• Game total O 52.5 points

• R. Wilson O 275 pass yards

• Sutton O 70 rec yards

  
  

Leverage (+4200)

• R. Wilson O 25 rush yards

• Gibbs O 70 rush yards

  
  

High Leverage (+15775)

• Montgomery TD

• LaPorta TD

  
  

Alt game script build: Lions dominate (+735)

• Montgomery 2 TDs

• Gibbs O 50 rush yards

The Saints are not a team that can be trusted this year due to miserable coaching and dramatically underperforming quarterback play.

Olave, their number one weapon, is hampered with yet another injury and may miss the game outright, and their two best performances this year came against the lowly Patriots and the Panthers.

Giants are also top 10 in run EDP allowed this season, which should neutralize the Saints primary game-script funnel, Alvin Kamara.

Both teams are trending bottom 10 in xDR on offense, with the Saints being one of the worst teams in the league when the field compresses (with Derek Carr's infamous reputation for despicable redzone turnovers).

Core (+530)

• Giants ML

• Devito O 40 rush yards

  
  

Leverage (+2400)

• 1H total U 19.5

• Devito O 178.5 pass yards

  
  

Leverage (+4700)

• Barkley TD

*As of this writing, Kamara props are not available, but would consider his rush/rec as an optional leg

A non-SGP, cross-game parlay stack I like this week - as RB-friendly teams continue to lean on their run game into the end of the season. You can of course split up allocation to attack each leg individually, which I rank in order of preference below for your consideration:

RB Build (+575)

• Kyren Williams O 87.5 rush yards

• Bijan O 87.5 rush/rec yards

• Rachaad White O 18.5 rushes

Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.