This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

Last week we were directionally on target with the Lions/Broncos "over"-script, but our main core stumbled with Russ Wilson failing to hit his upper pass yards thresholds, and our 3-leg RB parlay whiffed with an Arthur Smith-induced Bijan no-show.

Let's find some opportunities in the shortened holiday slate.

NFL Week 16 SGP construction:

The Titans DL is a ghost of its usually "dominant" self, with past run stuffers Tart, Simmons, and Pecko all missing in action. SIC grades the Titans as the 3rd most injured defense in the league currently (70/100). This now more vulnerable unit has allowed the Dolphins and Texans to go over 100 yards rushing in back-to-back weeks.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense as a unit is one of the healthiest according to SIC (88/100), with Geno Smith the most notable 'banged up' outlier. The Seahawks offense has also been sneaky effective, ranking 12th overall in EDP/drive, and have been generating an explosive play on 32% of drives (above average).

Given Geno may still be dealing with lingering health issues, we could see the Seahawks defer to the run-game while on the road and lean on Ken Walker (who, admittedly, finished the week as limited in practice but is "good to go", per Pete Carroll).

For broader exposure to the potential Seahawks 'run game dominance' script, I'm going to sprinkle some Zack Charbonnet as well. Charbonnet has gone over 40 yards rushing in 5 out of the last 6 games, and in 7 games over the course of the season. His utilization has also ticked up the last 3 games, from an average of 32% to 36%, and he's getting over 50% of the 3rd down snaps (s/o @Doug_Analytics).

Core (+375)

• Walker O 90 rush yds

• Walker TD

  
  

Leverage (+1500)

• Charbonnet O 40 rush yds

The Commanders defense has been atrocious, and getting worse. Looking at "active points", the defense has underperformed betting market expectations by over a 100 points in 2023 (and that's accounting for markets continuing to downgrade and lower expectations for the defense on a week-by-week basis).

Breece Hall is 6th in rush yards and YAC over expected at 211. His talent and potential are undeniable. Of course, the Jets' offense has not consistently put him in a position to succeed - and negative game scripts are largely to blame. He's generating 13 more fantasy points and 83 more rush/rec yards per game in their 5 wins this season.

The Jets have held as a steady -3 favorite all week, and the staff received a lot of criticism over the week for the unconscionable lack of touches for Breece and Garrett Wilson last week. The Commies have also allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs the last 6 weeks. Now is as good as any week for the Jets to feed their stars.

Elsewhere, Commies coach Ron Rivera mentioned he pulled Howell from the game against the Rams to "protect him from injury" - but vs a vicious Jets defense at home with 3 elite secondary players in preventing separation (s/o @throwthedamball), there may be a legitimate opening for Howell to again get yanked early.

Core (+640)

• Breece O 100 rush yds

  
  

Leverage (+2900)

• G. Wilson O 5.5 rec

• Howell U 210.5 pass yds

  
  

Core (+1300)

• Ridley O 100 rec yds

• Evans O 100 rec yds

• Game total O 43 pts

Good luck and Merry Christmas, Kings. Let's have a holiday weekend.