This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

The final week of the 2023 NFL season is upon us, riddled with its usual mix of both meaningful and meaningless games. Given the noise, I'm keeping the SGP sportfolio slimmer than usual, targeting an upset with an attractive QB/WR1 combo.

NFL Week 18 SGP construction:

The Eagles defense has struggled mightily down the stretch this season, especially against the pass - ranking 32nd in overall EDP allowed (2.2 points-per-drive allowed) and 31st in EDP allowed on pass-heavy drives (a disastrous 2.6 points-per-drive allowed). They are also allowing at least one ex

plosive play on 32% of drives (bottom 10 in the NFL).

The vulnerability of the defense had been raising eyebrows the last several weeks, but the most profane example that alerted the world to their ineptitude was last week at home vs the Cardinals as almost 2 TD favorites.

Indeed, the Eagles lost outright 35-31, but our Drive Quality model - which is engineered to evaluate the underlying substance of team drive-level performance independent of actual scores - suggests the loss was even worse than the final score implied.

The Cardinals absolutely de-feathered the Eagles.

Meanwhile, the Eagles will be missing their best corner, Darius Slay, who is very often tasked with lining up against the opponent's #1 WR and, according to Arjun, has been doing an elite job of preventing separation in 2023.

But can the Giants take advantage?

Sure, the Giants offense has been awful this season, ranking 31st in EDP, earning just 1.2 points-per-drive (only the Jets are worse).

But Tyrod Taylor has demonstrated the ability (and appetite) to still toss a beautiful deep ball, and has kept the team relatively competitive vs tough opponents (Bills, Rams, and Eagles). He's also 3-0 ATS this season.

Further, the Giants receiving corp - though not sexy - has also demonstrated a consistent ability to create separation, regardless of who has been at QB (whether Tyrod, Devito, or Jones). And, as we can see in the chart below from Judah, Tyrod has been the best of the bunch at actually finding and targeting the open receiver.

The Eagles strength has been their offense (top 5 in offensive EDP, earning 2.3 points-per-drive).

However, it's unclear how much of the game they intend to actually play Jalen Hurts and the rest of their starters. They are already sitting Devonta Smith in a precautionary/conservative move, and unless the Cowboys lose SU as -13 favorites to the woeful Commanders, then the Eagles have nothing to gain with respect to playoff seeding. I (and the broader market it seems) expect the Eagles will eventually rest their starters at some point in the game, thus the steep spread discount (and follow-thru pressure leading into kickoff).

I expect the Giants to pull the upset with a strong performance to finish the season by Tyrod and company.

Darius Slayton has sniffed a snap count of 90% the last 4 consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, speedster (and talented) rookie Jalin Hyatt reached a season-high 77% snap count last week, while gimpy (but still effective) Darren Waller also reached a post-injury-high snap count of 66%.

These aren't terrible weapons for a competent Tyrod Taylor vs. a hampered and struggling (and maybe even disinterested?) Eagles defense, who has allowed the most fantasy points to both QBs and WRs this season.

The below builds are via BetOnline (full menu of props on FanDuel were not available at time of writing).

Core (+675)

• Tyrod O 224 pass yds

• Slayton O 64 rec yds

• Giants +5

High Octane Core (+2000)

• Tyrod O 275 pass yds

• Slayton O 100 rec yds (potential pivot to Hyatt for true alpha)

Leverage (+4400)

• Giants ML

Hope you enjoyed these SGP strategy notes this season. Good luck, Kings.