NFL Week 3 tradable opps:

This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack from an in-game betting perspective.

Tradable in-game setups and alts

• A. If get confirmation that Vikings can move the ball AND Chargers run game stymied/Herbert pressured, these are our triggers to accumulate Vikings exposure in-game

• B. Alts to ride, leverage or hedge: Vikings -7.5 expecting a 2 TD lead at some point, then swing the other way with a Chargers +11.5 or better middle (…or leave unhedged to lever up on Vikings game-script upside)

• C. If Chargers have 2 offensive TDs by end of first half, it means this alt game script is less likely to materialize; work to hedge alts exposure, expecting a toss up game that comes down to whoever has ball last (seek only +money +points opportunities on both sides)

Our consensus public analyst ranking has the Vikings ranked 25th, yet our EDP model has their offense ranked 1st and has given up the 4th least explosive plays.

What does this mean?

On 10 days rest, Flores gets time to prepare to limit Eckler's backup Kelley and find ways to get pressure on Herbert - making his life harder than the market and NFL touts seem to think possible.

So, let's play out a scenario where Vikings get their 30 points, have turnover margin in their favor (yes, this is possible), Chargers can't run like the Eagles did, and Herbert is under duress and dumping it off most of the game.

We know Staley meltdowns are in this Charger team's DNA. Might we see a 31-17 type blowout? I'm rolling the dice on the view that - yes, we will. Lest we forget, in a similar spot last year - also Week 3 - the might Chargers laid a -2 turnover dud against the Jags, losing 38-10. That game did see a balanced attack by the Jags, and admittedly there was no Keenan Allen, but LAC couldn't run the ball in that one, and gave up over 400 yards on defense.

Scenarios to bet

• A. I' m expecting a 17-16 style game. Open small with an alt under pregame, targeting 33.5

• B. If get an early score in the first 5-6 minutes, lean in and complete your desired under exposure at more attractive levels

• C. Look for elevated prices on all RB's rushing yards, targeting unders on Henry and Ford

Testing some standalone alt unders and blended into SGPs in this spot, across all props types. Get creative.

The Titans are 4th in defensive EPA/rush, while the Browns are 5th, so running shouldn't be easy - especially without Nick Chubb, the 3rd best graded rusher in the NFL out for the season (this RB does matter) and the worn-and-torn King Henry running behind the preseason 32nd ranked offensive line.

Further, winds might reach 18-20mph in Cleveland - and with two stout fronts against the run, I expect both teams to play closer to the vest, not allowing either QB to lose them the game. Lots of time-eating but stalled drives and snaps with 2-3 seconds on the play clock.

Other alt scenarios for SGPs I'm eyeing across other NFL games

Ophelia tropical depression may affect Commies, Ravens, and Jets games, and I'll be leaning into some low cost, high reward stacks in case of dreadfully sloppy playing conditions: Low passing totals, higher LJ rushing than normal, and bad offenses like the Jets throwing even less than anticipated.