This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

SGPs, VC and venture-style betting:

As much as we have pounded the table on the extractable value from in-game live trading, this takes time, conviction, planning, proper sizing, and perhaps most importantly - decisive action. The more practical path for the average bettor who is more inclined to pregame betting (with a higher-risk appetite and the proper temperament to stomach strings of small losses in a row), is via SGPs.

We like to parallel a lot of what we do at SportfolioKings through the prism of traditional Wall Street concepts, and calculated SGP betting can be loosely compared to venture bets. Perhaps what we will preliminarily call ASVs, Alt-Scenario Ventures (a work in progress lol).

Like venture capitalists (VCs) or high-leverage event-driven hedge fund strategies, the goal is not to hit 60% of bets. The expectation is hit approximately 1% to 5% of them, with astronomical returns of potentially 100/1 or more on those 5%.

This might sound "degenerate" on its face due to antiquated sports betting maxims, loud-mouthed 'sharps' who criticize any concept incongruent to their existing beloved paradigms, and media figures who bastardize and misapply SGP strategies.

The attraction of venture betting in general: lower relative single-event risk with expotential potential return. All that we need is to isolate mispriced gamescript correlations — and if you have been following our work both in 2022 and this season, you have seen this theory be put into practice.

In our Discord channel on Thursday night (DM me if you'd like access), ThrowtheDamnBall posted a deep out-of-the-money Fields/Moore alt-scenario that he and DeepValueBettor put trades on, with minimal exposure, under $200 on the event itself, which resulted in $6,000 and $11,200, respectively.

Fraction of a unit exposure for 10-50-100-300x type returns. *Gush*

More than this particular SGP printing session, this is now 3/5 weeks in the 2023 NFL season where +1400, +1300, +30,000 leveraged plays are being capitalized on, and broadcasted (for free, of course, and always will be) to our small community of traders, bettors, and +EV gamblers.

But that's in the past. Let's see what else we can dig up. Where can we get a clear edge in market pricing and leverage into these opportunities in Week 5?

This weekly note is intended to give you the core pieces to work with. But as prices are changing constantly, it's up to you to decide how much to leverage, and what specific variances you may want to lean into. These are your building blocks.

In our Discord channel, you can find most of my more well-defined SGPs. I start to post my earliest constructions on Friday nights. And of course - always remember - do not over leverage your bankroll on any single event or theme. Be especially cautious adding legs in an SGP that are not correlated (this is a sure-fire way to ruin any +EV build you may be constructing).

NFL Week 5 SGP construction & tradable opps:

Game Scenario: Bijan Robinson runs wild

Core 

• Bijan O rush yds up to 130

• Bijan TD (1, 2, or 3)

• Falcons team total O up to 21

  
  

Correlated Leverage

• Bijan O rec yds up to 51

• Ridder U pass yds

• Pierce U rush yds 45

  
  

Uncorrelated Leverage

• Stroud O pass yds

• Nico Collins U yds / U catches

**Full disclosure: Judah likes a Texans alt game-script**

Game Scenario: Breece Hall shred vulnerable Broncos defense

Core

• B. Hall O yds up to 130

• B. Hall up to 2 TDs

  
  

Correlated Leverage

• Z. Wilson U pass yds / comp

• B. Hall O carries up to 14

  
  

Uncorrelated Leverage

• Game total U

Game Scenario: Breece Hall overs game-script

Core

• Game total U (consider Alt U)

• B. Young U pass yds

  
  

Correlated Leverage

• D. Montgomery O 16 carries

• Goff U pass yds

  
  

Uncorrelated Leverage

• Gibson O up to 40 rush yds

Live betting game of the week:

Our EDP model has Vikings as a top 3 offense; so this doesn't need to be any more complicated than that. Looking into Vikings spread/ML and alts. If playing an alt or ML, look for Chiefs down and hedge or attempt to thread a middle. Both these teams are rarely blown out if the offense is in sync and the Mahomes/Cousins is upright. I'll be targeting:

• Vikings +4

• Vikings ML

• Vikings Alt -3

• In-game Chiefs +4 or better (leveraging up if +7 or better)

If this game-script turns against us early and Chiefs takes an early 2 score lead, I'm still going to look to lean into the Vikings if the offense has demonstrated downfield passing success.

Some other alts to consider:

Giants vs Dolphins

• Giants team O with Danny Dimes pass/rush O as core

• Archane and Waddle are two variants to consider for extra leverage

Eagles vs Rams

• Stafford/Puca O

• Kyren rushing yds U

Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.

P.S., if you missed our Week 5 Alpha Bets podcast, check it out on Youtube, Apple podcasts, and Spotify