This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

Last week we touched on resetting expectations on SGPs after a blistering hot start to the season, and I must say, that was exactly what was needed. I struggled to find opportunities for outsized upside last week, and guess what - it turned out to be a historic week for Unders across the slate.

This week, I'm licking my lips a bit more…

NFL Week 7 SGP construction:

The Dolphins are having a historic offensive year and are heading to Philadelphia to play a decimated secondary. The Dolphins are #1 in offensive earned-drive-points (EDP) per drive, and #2 isn't even close. The separation between the #1 Dolphins (3.0 EDP/drive) and the #2 Chargers (2.4 EDP/drive) is the same distance as the #2 Chargers and the #18 Ravens (1.8 EDP/drive). Sure, the Dolphins may have played easy defenses, but they torched these defenses in a way no one else in the NFL has shown an ability to on a consistent basis.

Now, maybe the Dolphins are just bullies; beat up on the weak and cower in the face of an equally capable opponent (Bills?), but that is not our base case.

Meanwhile, Philly has shown a penchant to be able to stop the run, including similar concepts the Dolphins like to run. If we’re keying on Overs, we’re going to look at an explosive day from Tua in the passing game and a sufficiently explosive Eagles offense (#4 in offensive EDp/drive) to keep pace.

Even if the Eagles are playing well and with a sizable lead, the Dolphins comeback mode vs a soft defense can still be kind to an Overs game script.

Game Scenario 1: Classic high scoring affair

Core (+300)

• Over 51.5 (or alts out to 58.5)

• Dolphins +3 (or alts out to -5.5)

  
  

Correlated Leverage (+650)

• Tua O 300 yards

• Tua O 1.5 TDs

• Waddle O 80 yards

  
  

Uncorrelated Leverage (+2400)

• AJ Brown O 100 yards

Game Scenario 2: Eagles flex muscles; Dolphins comeback

Core (+330)

• Eagles ML

• Swift O 14.5 carries

• Mostert U 13.5 carries

  
  

Correlated Leverage (+1350)

• Mostert O 2.5 catches

• Waddle O 4.5 catches

  
  

Giants are without at least 3 offensive linemen and I don't expect Tyrod Taylor to be able to take advantage of the weak Commander’s secondary down the field, given these particular game conditions. Like last week vs the Bills, I expect the Giants offensive focal point to be all-things Saquon Barkley leading to slow-methodical drives that help quicken this game.

Game Scenario: Slow paced, sloppy game

Core (+240)

• U 37.5

• Barkley O 17.5 carries

  
  

Correlated Leverage (+525)

• Brian Robinson O 15.5 carries

  
  

Boosted Leverage (+2500)

• Brian Robinson O 8.5 rec yards

• Waller O 3.5 catches

Mac Jones has been pulled multiple times this season after lackluster performances, and the Patriots appear to be a sinking ship. They are one of the worst teams in offensive EDP (30th), earning just 1.2 points per drive. However, this is the NFL, the Bills defense is as banged up as it has been (SIC scores them with a 64.5/100 health, which puts them as the least healthy defense in the league), and Mac Jones has still demonstrated the capacity to throw a pretty deep ball.

Because the Patriots have been so lousy offensively (and defensively for that matter), Mac Jones' props thresholds are as depressed as they come. Jones has also been heavily targeting Kendrick Bourne, who has shown the capacity to generate 60-80 yards receiving in a game.

Moonshot Scenario: Mac Jones goes off, targeting Kendrick Bourne over and over, but still can't keep up with Bills

Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.