This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

NFL Week 7 was a strong week for the collective SportfolioKings bankroll; capturing alpha and exploiting underappreciated game scripts. Judah gave out a Tyrod Taylor/Jalin Hyatt stack that cashed at +2300, and in last week's Two-Sigma note 2/3 Core SGP builds hit at +240 and +330.

As we rolled into MNF, we diagramed a build in our Discord that bet on Jordan Addison having a breakout game down the field in conjunction with Hockenson gobbling up short and intermediate targets. Addison max overs paired with a Hockenson base cashed at +3300; one of our most profitable SGP hits so far this year.

If interested in learning more, check out our Discord (DM me on Twitter for an invitation). Our primary goal for the channel is to develop a diverse and collaborative coalition of imaginative bettors, traders, and thoughtful risk-takers (pros and casuals, sharps and wannabes, big bankrolls and small bankrolls) in order to ferret out underappreciated angles and alt scenarios, as we collectively work to take advantage of market inefficiencies and mispriced game script probabilities.

NFL Week 8 SGP construction:

The Panthers defense has been one of the worst this season, ranking 29th in EDP. The Texans are 26th in the league in passing defense. The Panthers also just handed play-calling duties over to former McVay coaching bloodline, 37-year-old Thomas Brown, which at worst, should make it difficult to game-plan for, similar to how the Bucs new OC game-caller to start the year fared better early, and has come down to earth as the season has progressed. Both these offenses are in the bottom half from an EDP perspective - but CJ has played excellent season-to-date, while Bryce has started to find some footing the last few weeks.

So how can we capitalize on this game - one where the Texans get their points and the Panthers still surprise to the upside?

Game Scenario : Overs-oriented game script with Panthers keeping or catching up, and improved Bryce Young off bye with new play-caller variance

Core (+425)

• Young O 235 pass yards

• Thielen O 6 receptions

• Game total O 45

  
  

Correlated Leverage (+675)

• Chark O 35 yards

  
  

Uncorrelated Leverage (+2900)

• Stroud O up to 275 pass yards

• Nico Collins O 75 yards alt

• Thielen O 90 yards alt

Some of the highest leverage game script SGPs is keying on an underdog alt line upset and a correlation of that game script with QB alt overs. By leveraging a low % variant (alt underdog spread) with a key correlation (underdog QB having a surprise good game to lead the surprise victory), it allows us to squeeze the most juice out of our high-conviction prediction.

Game Scenario: 2022 edition of Bengals surprise banged up Niners D

Core (+1200)

• Bengals -2.5

• Burrow O 300 pass yards

  
  

Correlated Leverage (+7260)

• Bengals -5.5

• Burrow O 350 pass yards

  
  

Boosted Leverage (+19400)

• Bengals -5.5

• Burrow O 325 pass yards

• Chase O 125 rec yards

• Higgins o 80 REC YARDS

I think this is a perfect get-right spot for the Saints - and on familiar turf. Their offensive scheme has been atrocious, but the personnel on the field is an talented as they come.

I'm positioning for Saints ML combined with deeper out-of-the-money alt spreads and a strong Derek Carr performance down the field, meaning plenty of Olave and Shaheed, vs a team that is in the bottom 10 in the league in the redzone (where the Saints have struggled, but get right this week).

This line makes no sense.

These two teams are on different paths this year, despite their records. If the Vikings ever won by margin, this would be a great opportunity for a Vikings alt angle. The Vikings defense has feasted on young QBs. Brian Flores, without the full-range of talent needed, is scheming a way to give the Vikings a chance to win every game. Next up, is the vulnerable Packers with an exploitable young QB. After Monday night’s beat down of the 49ers, Cousins and company are beaming with a renewed confidence. If they just don’t beat themselves, they are good enough to compete with anyone - even without Justin Jefferson for a few more weeks.

Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.