This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

Last week, we had a core thesis that was right on the money (Burrow/Bengals bounce back surprise at the Niners). Unfortunately, we got a bit greedy, leaning too far into deep out-of-the-money alts.

When we have a high-conviction view on an alt gamescript, we ideally want to build a ladder of more aggressive, high-threshold props on top of a more conservative core construction. This way, we don't leave money on the table when the core essence of our projected alt gamescript materializes.

On to NFL Week 9…

NFL Week 9 SGP construction:

Jonathan Taylor's gone from 42% to 50% to 61% snap share over the last 3 weeks, while improving his YPC along the way. He now gets a juicy matchup against the Panthers who have struggled against strong running teams (giving up 2.1 EDP on run-heavy drives, which ranks 27th in the league). The Panthers defense is also allowing an explosive play on 36% of drives, which ranks 28th.

Core (+305)

• Taylor O 100 rush yards

• Colts ML

Leverage (+966)

• Taylor O 125 rush yards

• Taylor TD

• Game total O 43.5

The Commanders' active trade deadline-generating headlines may be distracting bettors from the glorious (but disrespected) rise of Sam Howell and the schematic changes made the last few weeks to put Howell is better positions to be successful. The Commanders are tied for 1st in weighted pass-rate over expectation at 9% (tied with the likes of the Chiefs and the Bengals), and are generating explosive plays on 26% of drives (while the Patriots defense is giving up explosive plays on 27% of drives). Who will benefit? Dotson is commanding more targets with Samuel missing time, and the market continues to underrate his upside potential - even after a breakout performance last week vs the Eagles.

Core (+390)

• Howell O 275 pass yards

• Dotson O 60 rec yards

Leverage (+1280)

• Howell 300 pass yards

• Dotson O 80 rec yards

• Game total O 40.5

Ulta Leverage (+3324)

• Howell 300 pass yards

• Dotson O 100 rec yards

• Commanders alt line -2.5

Watch some Jaren Hall college highlights and preseason all-22 tape and you may just be romanced. Falcons D is tough, but the Vikings have been a top 5 offensive EDP team all season. Yes, no Cousins and no Jefferson. But maybe there was more to it, and KOC uses Hall to unlock some further potential? Smart money is on the Vikings.

Moonshot (+2559)

• Hall O 225 pass yards

• Hall O 16.5 rush yards

• Addison O 80 rec yards

• Vikings +3.5

Moonshot P*rn (+16596)

• Hall O 250 pass yards

• Hall O 16.5 rush yards

• Hall TD

• Addison O 80 rec yards

• Bijan O 58.5 rush yards

Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.