NFL Week 2 playbook:

This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack from an in-game betting perspective.

Let's lean into uncertainty and cash some 3-baggers!

Dolphins :: Patriots

Scenarios to bet

• A. Either team down a TD, look for premium spread anticipating a comeback

• B. Tua was sloppy at times vs LAC, which seems to be overlooked by cappers. There is a world, if the game gets out of hand, where Patriots are the ones taking advantage and building a formidable lead

• C. A first quarter lull would be great opportunity to get a discounted over

I'm keying on what looks to be two excellent offenses to start the season: Miami and New England. Some very sharp minds out there are all over the Dolphins in this spot, while I am leaning into Patriots. So, what to do? Why not look to play both? Lean into alts and stacks with SGPs, and live trading this game could look a lot like Chargers vs Dolphins last week… but perhaps turn it down by 2 TDs and 100 yards. 

Waddle yards over, Gesicki yards over, Stevenson catches/yards out of the backfield, and of course who can stop Tyreke/Tua. These are some of the in-game props I'm leaning into for SGPs that can provide low risk-high reward. (Note, I tend to not give specific numbers on props, as it's inferred that you're shopping for the best line/price, and stacking high leverage SGPs accordingly.)

Week 1, one of the teams I was most impressed by after rewinding the full-tape on all 16 games was the Patriots. If they don't get behind 3 scores on fluky plays, they were the better team top to bottom, including at QB. I look for both offenses to be able to find explosive plays and punch it in the endzone, and if can get either team (or even both) at +3.5 to +7, expecting a comeback, that's where I'll be licking my chops. Yes, the Fangio defense could rebound, but stylistically, the Chargers use of RBs in the offense looked eerily similar to what the Pats did to the Eagles with Elliot and Stevenson. 

Seahawks :: Lions

Scenarios to bet

• A. Any dip in the total, hit over 41 to 44

• B. If scoring confirmed by Seattle in a big way, take over up to 54 (yes losing live line value (LLV), but I'm willing to pay for that information confirmation)

• C. If either team goes down double-digits AND have confirmation Geno is playing at least decent and RBs have flashed, take +7 or better on the comeback by either team (and if Lions down, would look to take discounted ML)

The other game I'm keying on is Seahawks and Lions. This game looks ripe for a tease with either team to the over if looking for a pregame setup, but more importantly, I don't buy the 8 spot power ranking downgrade on Seattle (at least not yet). Yes, their offensive line had a couple injuries, but they go into this game knowing that. Last week, the Lions were fortunate to squeeze out that game, even as KC played miserable on offense, and Seattle played like two different teams from the 1st half to the 2nd half at home vs the Rams. The Rams are much better as a unit than the market ever gave them credit for coming into the season, with the best QB in the NFC. So I'm not downgrading Seattle nearly as harshly. 

I'm once again keying on some SGPs with the likes of LePorta, Gibbs, Metcalf, Walker, St. Brown and both QBs with alts to the over. Remember, these teams put up over 1K yards last year in a very similar spot, and nearly 100 points. Now, these teams have changed a bit, but I think there's a lot of upside here, with big plays to be had all over the field, more Gibbs, more downfield passing by Seattle, and more points.

If the total dips at all on a potential slow start (especially if due to turnovers), or even if ticks up and we see points will be plentiful, especially by Seattle, then taking anything O54 in-game is live (and flirt with alt overs if you dare; I will be, with a focus on Det team total).