This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

Let's make some money, Kings:

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Last year, Judah generated 86% ROI from SGPs. I'm new to sharing SGP content this year, but been developing a gamescript-oriented betting skillset and strategy since the Bucs/Chiefs Super Bowl (we pitched Bucs spread, moneyline, and deep alts -7.5 and -10.5). That sensational win was a bit of an epiphany. I increasingly saw the value of leaning into handicapping multidimensional game-scripts and not just singular outcomes. The win % of this approach is of course lower; but the returns can be exponential, while maintaining relatively low and manageable bankroll risk.

Over the last two weeks, I posted three SGPs that hit at +1300 odds (follow me on X and join our Discord), all of which were constructed based on the foundational elements outlined in my Two-Sigma notes (p.s., for those that may not know, two sigma is two standard deviations, representing volatility and outcomes that skew from the easily predicted).

Now, SGPs (like any parlay), are of course 1 leg away from nuking the whole bet. But, ordinary parlays are almost always uncorrelated, while gamescript-dependent SGPs can exploit many of the baked-in causal relationships (in addition to line inefficiencies).

For instance, take the Bucs last Monday night. In my view, the most probable gamescript was an Eagles domination; one in which the D-line of the Eagles mostly dominated the game. Simple really. With that in mind, why bet Eagles -5.5 alone at -110? Eagles could get back-doored. Why not add Bucs team under? If Bucs are going to score under 19.5 points (approximately 17 most likely), the bet just needs Eagles to reach 23, which is 41 points on a 44.5 total. 3.5 points off from the listed total.

And so there's the nugget of insight -- SGPs can offer potential exploitable value, pending how closely you can spot the correlation of X prop with Y game-script, and so forth.

So, I tweeted out and detailed in the Discord the following game scenario a day after doing one very similar with Jets/Patriots and Zach Wilson unders.

The Game-Script Story: Philly D Line Dominates

What is most likely to materialize then?

• A. Philly covers -5.5 (alt -10.5)

• B. TB goes under 19.5 team points

• C. Baker goes under 225+ yrd total

• D. Rachaad White under rush 45.5 yrd total

• E. Godwin under 55.5 yrd total

• F. For negative correlation leverage: added Evans over 58.5 yrd total option

• G. Added consideration: AJ Brown over 5.5 catches and 70 yrd total

  
  

These all hit. A and B are more causally related, but close behind is C, D and E. F is added leverage due to counter-correlation with the directional core of the SGP, and G prop was added for a price boost in a sister parlay (not necessary but fun). 

If a gamescript theme (or narrative) is correct and we placed bets properly with calibrated variations, we're likely to hit some nice low risk winners. And if the game-script went against us, like our B-game scenario for Lions/ Packers on Thursday - well, a loss is a loss (but still controlled and fractional to our targeted returns).

So, as we prepare for this week and beyond, we'll be keying on game-script specific angles to stack correlated bets that have an almost causal relationship at times. 

So, let's get to Week 4.

NFL Week 4 SGP construction & tradable opps:

Game Scenario: Richardson is dominated up front

Game Comp: Rams vs Seahawks 2023 2H meets Bryce Young's 1st start vs ATL 2023

This game is a great spot for Richardson to play like an in-over his head rookie, assuming his running is stifled by Donald and company.

(Conviction Rank)

Core 

• 1. Rams ML/spread alts 

• 2. Colts +1 turnovers

• 3. Colts team under 21

  
  

Correlated Leverage

• 4. Zach Moss under yds

• 5. Richardson under passing yards

• 6. Kyren over carries

  
  

Uncorrelated Leverage

• 8. Puca over rec / yds

• 9. Kyren over total yards

• 10. Atwell over yds / under rec

  
  

Pretty simple here. If saw the game tape on Richardson, he's great as a running threat and capable with easy short reads, but he's got a long way to go otherwise. We see the Rams as materially better than Colts anyway, so we'll likely be betting Rams on top of these high leverage alts/SGPs (manage risk appropriately) Rams have been top 5 explosive drives and Colts are bottom 10, fundamentally, this is a mismatch of a game, assuming Rams front makes life difficult on AR.

Game Scenario: Steeler D front dominates

Game Comp: Steelers vs Browns 2023 meets Ravens vs Texans 2023

Core

• 1. Steelers alt line cover

• 2. Texans team under 21

  
  

Correlated Leverage

• 3. Najee Harris over rush yds

• 4. TJ Watt over 0.5 sacks

  
  

Uncorrelated Leverage

• 5. Tank Dell over 50 yds

**Full disclosure: Judah likes a Texans alt game-script**

Live Betting Game of the Week:

This game has two explosive offenses and means a ton for division implications. I'll be targeting:

• Either team down 2 scores…Dolphins +6.5 or better, Bills +4 or better

• Total dips and take over 47

Other alts to consider:

• 1. Rams can go up 2-3 scores

• 2. Vikings alt -11

• 3. Bears/Broncos over 54-61